Gold jumped 1.6% today to $4,297 per ounce, recovering from the previous session's decline. The catalyst was the signing of a temporary peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran—Trump and Iranian officials formalized the memorandum electronically. However, it remains unclear whether the Strait of Hormuz has indeed been opened, and this uncertainty is preventing the rebound from turning into a full reversal.

Currently, two competing narratives are influencing gold. The first is positive: declining oil prices are easing inflation expectations, which could reduce pressure on interest rates and remove the main brake on the metal over the past four months. Brent crude has fallen below $78 per barrel—close to the level at which the energy contribution to inflation starts to neutralize. The second narrative is negative: the Federal Reserve made it clear yesterday that a rate hike at the end of the year is still on the table. Traders are fully pricing in tightening by October. Higher rates exert direct pressure on the non-interest-bearing metal.

I would like to draw attention to an important nuance in yesterday's Fed decision. The central bank not only maintained rates but also removed the mention of "additional adjustments" from the statement, which the market interprets as a signal of readiness for a hike rather than a cut. This is a significant shift in communication under the leadership of new Chair Kevin Warsh: fewer signals about the direction of policy, more dependence on data. For gold, this indicates continuing uncertainty regarding rates, and uncertainty leaning towards tightening is worse than certainty leaning towards easing.

Silver is rising even more aggressively today—up 2.5% to $69.61 after a 3% drop the day before. Platinum and palladium are also in positive territory.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,372. This will allow them to target $4,432, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The further target will be around $4,481. In the event of a decline, bears will try to take control of $4,304. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and could push gold down to a low of $4,249 with the potential to reach $4,186.