Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are quite a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, but none of them are truly significant. At first glance, reports on GDP in Germany or the Eurozone may seem important. However, we want to remind beginner traders that the market rarely reacts to GDP reports. Reports on inflation and unemployment in Germany can also be considered conditionally important. Still, the aforementioned reports can influence the euro's exchange rate only if actual values deviate significantly from forecasts. In the US, a secondary Producer Price Index will be released.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is not much to highlight among the fundamental events for Friday. The Federal Reserve meeting concluded on Wednesday evening, and the results were easily predictable for traders. Although Jerome Powell has questioned the likelihood of a rate cut in March, this has not helped the dollar at all. The US currency has remained near its lows for the last 3-4 years, both against the euro and the pound. Therefore, we fully anticipate that the growth of the euro and the pound will resume soon, although it may be more logical for the correction to continue. However, the dollar will surely react if Donald Trump decides to attack someone, conduct a military operation in Iran, or raise tariffs again. The dollar remains in a very vulnerable position, with no support in sight.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs are likely to trade mainly on technical factors. The euro can be traded today at 1.1908, while the British pound can be traded in the area of 1.3741-1.3751. Of course, the dollar does not have to fall every day. There will be pauses, corrections, and pullbacks. However, fundamental events could send the dollar into another knockout at any moment.

Main rules of the trading system:

1. Signal strength is judged by the time required to form the signal (rebound or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened on false signals near a level, then all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can generate a mass of false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session; after that, all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD-based signals should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too close to each other (5–20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. After a move of 15–20 pips in the correct direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What is shown on the charts:

Support and resistance price levels — levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit can be placed near them.

Red lines — channels or trendlines that reflect the current tendency and show which direction is preferable to trade now.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with maximum caution, or positions should be closed, to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.