The GBP/USD currency pair traded higher on Monday as well, but, to put it mildly, the pair's overall growth did not match the scale of the positive geopolitical backdrop. Simply put, if the conflict between Iran and the US is indeed over, why was the market's reaction so weak? As mentioned in the EUR/USD article, the issue lies in the market's low level of confidence in the timing, quality, and solidity of this deal, which has yet to be signed. There are too many pitfalls in this situation for the market to expect there to be absolutely no catch. The first catch appeared on Monday.

Israeli authorities reported that they were deeply disappointed with the agreement between Iran and the US, which does not mention Israel's interests, as it has also been involved in the war and has its own interests and demands. The agreement between Iran and the US entails a complete ceasefire, including in Lebanon, which primarily attacks Israel. In other words, Israel must stop attacking Lebanon, yet it is not a party to the agreement. This creates a very intriguing situation that could very quickly end this situation called a "ceasefire" in the Middle East.

Israel may continue attacking Hezbollah and, being an ally of the US, trigger a retaliatory response from Iran. That would be the end of the deal. Alternatively, Iran may exit the agreement with the US, believing that American allies have violated its terms. Thus, any military actions between Lebanon and Israel starting from Monday could potentially derail the peace deal that has been so painstakingly achieved.

Of course, we do not rule out that Donald Trump will make a phone call to "his best friend Bibi Netanyahu" and manage to resolve the situation. However, nothing is known about that for now. If Israel's interests are indeed not taken into account, another peace agreement will be required.

Thus, the market's lack of urgency in buying EUR/USD and GBP/USD upon closer inspection is entirely logical and easily explained. There are too many "buts" in this situation, which could still explode at any moment. One cannot deny that the prospects for the British currency (as well as the European one) have improved significantly on Monday. However, now this hypothetical and potential success needs to be developed and realized. We believe that at this time, the euro and pound are positioned to begin a new prolonged upward trend. Let us remember that the dollar's support factor has been solely the complicated geopolitical situation in the Middle East. If this factor is mitigated, the market will have no reason to buy dollars. This certainly does not mean that the American currency will plummet at lightning speed. But it does mean that a gradual depreciation of the dollar is the most logical and inevitable scenario for 2026—or until Trump starts a new war.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of June 16 is 69 pips, which is considered "average." On Tuesday, June 16, we expect the pair to move within a range bounded by levels 1.3366 and 1.3504. The upper channel of linear regression has turned upwards, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area, warning of a possible completion of the downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3428

S2 – 1.3367

S3 – 1.3306

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3489

R2 – 1.3550

R3 – 1.3611

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair continues its downward trend. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect long-term growth from the US dollar. However, 2026 is proving super-positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3489 and 1.3504 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. A price position below the moving average line will allow for trading down with a target of 1.3306. The market situation is often changing, and it continues to primarily track geopolitical news, which lacks uniformity.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, then the trend is strong right now;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) represent the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator's entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates an approaching trend reversal in the opposite direction.