The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward move on Monday, though in the second half of the day it bounced from the 1.3465–1.3480 area and corrected slightly. However, traders continue to pressure the pair for one reason: the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The market still believes in U.S. monetary tightening, which supports the dollar, which currently has few growth drivers. In the current circumstances, we can only wait for the Fed meeting to see whether the market was right in its months-long anticipation of an imminent rate hike. The Bank of England's stance on Thursday could also turn more hawkish, while the Fed hike is already largely priced in. Thus, the dollar may continue to strengthen today or tomorrow, but its prospects remain unclear. In our view, a new upward impulse could begin from the 1.3465–1.3480 area.
Technically, the pound completed the formation of an uptrend as the trend line was breached. The dollar may continue to strengthen against its peers, although the only clear reason right now is the market's belief in Fed tightening. Without a breakout above the 1.3465–1.3480 area, the pair will struggle to decline further.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, two buy signals were formed as bounces from the 1.3465–1.3480 area. However, as of Tuesday morning, the price returned to that area, so a third bounce may form today.
COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with short positions for several months. The net position is negative despite the persistent long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that dollar demand was quite high in the first half of 2026. The war formally ended, but the conflict persists. Only geopolitics can support the US dollar in the near term. However, until the pair closes below the trend line, we would not count on a strong decline.
In the long run, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains, as evidenced by the trend line. The price recently tested that line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated September 8), the "Non-commercial" group closed 11,800 BUY contracts and 2,600 SELL contracts. Thus, the non-commercial traders' net position decreased by 9,200 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has moved into a downward trend. In the medium and long term, the pound still "looks" upward, so we believe any rise in sterling would be logical. We still do not see strong reasons for a prolonged and significant appreciation of the US currency. Even a hypothetical Fed rate-hike decision has already been priced in by the market several times.
For September 15 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3537) and the Kijun-sen (1.3515) can also be sources of signals. We recommend moving the stop-loss to breakeven when price moves 20 pips in the right direction. The Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Tuesday, the UK will publish fairly important reports on unemployment and wages, but we believe market attention is entirely absorbed by the Fed meeting and, to a lesser extent, by the BoE meeting. Thus, we are unlikely to see a strong reaction to the UK data today. The same applies to the weekly ADP report in the US, which holds little value for traders.
Today, traders may open short positions targeting 1.3369–1.3377 if price breaks through the 1.3465–1.3480 area. Open long positions if price bounces from the 1.3465–1.3480 area, targeting 1.3515, 1.3537, and 1.3588. Volatility may be low today.
Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.
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