Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Euro

The first test of the 1.1523 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 1.1523 allowed Buy Scenario No. 2 to play out, resulting in a 10-point gain.

The euro is likely to spend the next few hours awaiting the release of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for July. This index is considered a leading indicator, as it is one of the first to capture shifts in sentiment within the manufacturing sector, and its performance directly influences expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Since a revised reading will be released, the key focus will be on whether the initial estimate is revised higher or lower and how the final figure compares with economists' forecasts.

The outlook for the euro is straightforward. An upward revision combined with a reading above expectations would strengthen the U.S. dollar and increase downward pressure on EUR/USD, while weaker data would provide the euro with room to remain resilient. Following its recent rally, the single currency appears vulnerable to a pullback, so a strong U.S. report could trigger a meaningful correction, with its depth depending on how much the data exceed expectations.

As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Consider buying the euro if the price reaches 1.1540 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1574. I plan to close long positions at 1.1574 and open short positions from that level, anticipating a 30–35 point pullback. A rise in the euro today can be expected if the U.S. data come in weaker than forecast.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if the 1.1520 level is tested twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. In this case, a rise toward 1.1540 and 1.1574 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1520 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1491, where I intend to close short positions and immediately open long positions, anticipating a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if the U.S. data are strong.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if the 1.1540 level is tested twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.1520 and 1.1491 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for long (buy) positions.
• Thick green line – the projected Take Profit level or an area where profits can be locked in manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for short (sell) positions.
• Thick red line – the projected Take Profit level or an area where profits can be locked in manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold conditions into account.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with great caution. It is generally best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental economic releases to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly result in the loss of your entire deposit, especially if you trade large position sizes without proper risk management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.