On Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) is attempting to maintain a positive tone after the U.S. dollar weakened on Wednesday following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. However, amid the escalating confrontation between Washington and Tehran, the U.S. dollar is regaining the upper hand.

An additional factor supporting the U.S. currency is the growing inflationary risk stemming from the Middle East crisis. These risks have increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy further, reducing the appeal of the precious metal. As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday.

Nevertheless, the central bank stopped short of signaling a more aggressive policy stance, which initially pressured the U.S. dollar and pushed gold to its highest level of the week. Notably, the decision to keep interest rates unchanged drew three dissenting votes from committee members who favored a 25-basis-point rate hike.

The market continues to price in at least one additional rate increase before the end of the year, reflecting the rapidly evolving inflation outlook amid heightened volatility in oil prices.

As a result, precious metals remain under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish rhetoric, while the renewed rise in energy prices is expected to reinforce this trend.

The combination of tighter monetary policy expectations and rising energy prices continues to leave gold and the broader precious metals sector in an unfavorable position, reinforcing the current bearish sentiment.

The primary driver of higher oil prices remains the escalating confrontation between the United States and Iran, including rising tensions in the strategically important shipping routes of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Washington launched strikes against Iran in response to Tehran's unexpected missile attacks on U.S. military personnel in the Middle East on Tuesday.

At the same time, joint U.S. and Saudi Arabian strikes against pro-Iranian armed groups in Iraq have increased the risk of the conflict expanding into a broader regional confrontation. In addition, reports indicate that the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen is considering imposing transit fees on commercial vessels passing through the southern Red Sea.These developments come amid heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have intensified concerns over significant disruptions to global energy supplies and triggered a sharp increase in oil prices. In turn, these events are fueling inflation concerns and strengthening the case for further Federal Reserve policy tightening.

Today, traders should focus on the release of key U.S. macroeconomic data, including the preliminary estimate of second-quarter GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. These reports are expected to provide important guidance on the Federal Reserve's future policy path, influencing the direction of the U.S. dollar and providing fresh momentum for gold prices.

From a technical perspective, gold remains in a bearish consolidation phase. Momentum indicators continue to point lower, suggesting that the path of least resistance remains to the downside.