The test of the 159.90 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which, in my opinion, limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and missed the entire upward movement of the pair.
Today, the U.S. dollar continued to rise against the yen as Asian traders began to price in the Federal Reserve's decision to keep the key interest rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range. Notably, three Fed representatives voted yesterday to exclude the wording on the committee's near-term dovish stance, which prompted dollar purchases above 160. The sharp rise in oil prices and the worsening geopolitical tension in the Middle East further fueled the dramatic increase in USD/JPY today. However, it should be remembered that the Japanese central bank has repeatedly warned that it will intervene in the pricing through interventions if the yen falls below 160, which is currently happening. So, be extremely cautious with long positions in USD/JPY.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 160.85 (green line on the chart), with a target at 161.44 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 161.44, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.55 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 160.85 and 161.44 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 160.55 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 160.11 level, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Sellers may return at any moment; they just need any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 160.85 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease to the opposite levels of 160.55 and 160.11 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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