When there are plenty of pessimists in the market, Bitcoin typically begins its upward journey. Capital outflows from ETFs, heightened geopolitical risks, rising Treasury bond yields, declining interest in digital assets, and Donald Trump's inability to turn America into the crypto capital of the world have all contributed to gloomy forecasts for the future of BTC/USD. Rumors of another crypto winter were circulating in the market, and tokens usually fell by 80% during such periods. This time, it has only pulled back from its record highs by 50%.

Bitcoin's Drawdown Dynamics During Previous Crypto Winters

The 13-day capital flight from Bitcoin-focused ETFs, during which specialized fund stocks experienced a record $5.5 billion outflow, had its reasons. Investors reserved capital for SpaceX's upcoming initial public offering. Once it took place and proved successful, pressure on the cryptocurrency eased, and BTC/USD quotes moved higher.

For the week ending June 12, Bitcoin marked its worst performance since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022. One reason for this was that, during much of the armed conflict in the Middle East, it traded as a high-risk asset. Increasing geopolitical tension was exerting pressure on BTC/USD. Therefore, as soon as Trump announced the conclusion of a deal with Iran and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, cryptocurrency quotes rose.

Weekly Dynamics of Bitcoin

It is not surprising, as the oil market crisis heightened the likelihood of rising inflation and a tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Such a backdrop generally puts pressure on risky assets, leads to dollar strengthening, and increases U.S. Treasury yields. The reduction of geopolitical risks is returning everything to normal. Bitcoin will gradually restore its correlation with stock indices and positively react to rising global risk appetite.

According to Standard Chartered, investors have already seen the bottom in the current Bitcoin cycle. The completion of SpaceX's initial public offering will halt capital outflows from specialized exchange-traded funds and reverse the trend. The resolution of the conflict in the Middle East will weaken the US dollar, reduce treasury yields, and create favorable conditions for the S&P 500.

Market attention is focused on the FOMC meeting. Investors expect the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, to emphasize that the acceleration in inflation in the US is temporary. This will revive hopes for rate cuts and support BTC/USD. However, any hawkish surprise would strike all classes of risky assets, and cryptocurrency would be no exception.

Technically, on the daily chart, Bitcoin is experiencing a retracement of the 1-2-3 reversal pattern. As long as quotes remain above the fair value at 63,500, the sentiment remains bullish. It makes sense to focus on buying BTC/USD.